According to Indystar.com: Pick an analyst, and each has a different favorite to win the Big Ten Tournament.
Former Purdue coach Gene Keady likes Michigan State, but he won’t discount a team such as Illinois or Minnesota. Dan Dakich, the former Indiana player and coach who is a Big Ten Network studio analyst, likes Wisconsin, reasoning that it is playing better than anyone.ESPN’s Steve Lavin can’t decide between Ohio State and Wisconsin.
The one thing they agree on is what happens beginning today at Conseco Fieldhouse will help shape seeding for the NCAA Tournament.
Lavin thinks the Buckeyes can earn a No. 1 seed if they win the Big Ten Tournament. Purdue or Michigan State could end up with a No. 2 seed with a strong showing, and Wisconsin could climb to a No. 3.
“Ohio State has been on a tear here since the return of Evan Turner,” said Lavin, who will be in town today and Friday to call two games each day. “I think the big-picture story here, though, is that there are several teams that can elevate their seeding position for the NCAA Tournament dramatically by winning the Big Ten Tournament.”
Some think a tournament title could push Purdue into the debate for a No. 1 seed, even without Robbie Hummel. Not Lavin. He thinks Purdue’s ceiling is the No. 2 seed.
“If they don’t (win the tournament), they probably drop to the 3 line,” Lavin said. “I don’t think they could drop to the 4 unless they didn’t play well and lost in their first game.”
Keady said part of this week’s beauty is its unpredictable nature. The top seed, for instance, has won the event just four of 13 times. Eight times a No. 4 seed or lower has advanced to the championship.
“In this thing, you never know,” Keady said. “If kids want to play, they can be really good, and if they don’t, then they’ll go home early. I think it’s going to be a great tournament and I think any of a number of teams have a shot at it.
“If Robbie (Hummel) hadn’t gotten hurt, I would have picked Purdue. And you never know, Purdue might hang in there and play great defense and nip everybody by one.”Dakich said he favors Wisconsin because Jon Leuer has returned from a wrist injury. Wisconsin’s experience helps, too. The Badgers seek their second title in three years and the third since 2004.
“I don’t know if I’d call them the favorite, but I clearly think they’re the team to beat,” Dakich said. “I think a lot of guys on that team got real comfortable in the nine games that Leuer was out, and now that he’s back, you just have so many weapons on that team.
“And as Leuer continues to feel more comfortable, he just becomes a dominant presence for them.”
Most analysts believe Ohio State, Purdue, Michigan State and Wisconsin are locks for the NCAA Tournament. Illinois was once in that category but lost five of the past six games. Many believe the Illini need to win at least one game this week. The fifth-seeded Illini face fourth-seeded Wisconsin on Friday.
“It’s a monster game for Illinois, but this is basically the third game like that Illinois has played recently,” Dakich said of the Illini, who went 10-8 in the conference. “If you get 11 Big Ten wins in conference play, you’re in the NCAA Tournament. I don’t care what all the numbers say, you’re in. And Illinois had a lot of chances to get there and didn’t get it done. They had a chance with Minnesota at home and again with Wisconsin at home.
“The one thing I think people are missing with Illinois’ chances, though, is that they won five conference road games, and that’s important. But I still think you can’t underestimate how important this first game will be for Illinois.”
Lavin said Illinois will receive an at-large bid if the selection committee looks at its season, not just the past three weeks.
“With the unbalanced conference scheduling, you have a team like Illinois that just came down the stretch and played the toughest part of their schedule,” Lavin said. “And they were competitive, but they got knocked off. On the flip side, you have Wisconsin that down the stretch beat up on Iowa, Indiana and Northwestern. So based on wins and losses, Wisconsin looks like it’s surging and Illinois looks like it’s stumbling, but upon a closer look you see something different.
“It’s still important to win, don’t get me wrong, but when you take out a certain portion of the schedule from the equation, it can be misleading, too.”
